20/11/23 Weekly outlook
BTCUSDT Perpetual Contract BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
Last weeks high: $38023.9
Last weeks low: $36284.2
Bitcoin starts the week at almost exactly where it started the previous week, just hovering above the 37k it means BTC had a net neutral price action over the last 7 days. However, midweek saw a 10% range create the highs and the lows before contesting the midpoint.
After a strong rally for BTC it looks like 38k is resistance and with ETH struggling to match other altcoins in terms of %gains it leads me to believe that people have rotated their BTC profits and skipped ETH instead preferring to go to newer L1's and smaller cap coins, despite the news of BlackRock's new ETHEREUM ETF proposal. These newer projects haven't experienced a bull market before and tend to have a bigger potential return.
For this reason price action leads me to believe that we're getting to the stage of the mini cycle where a lot of people are looking to reinvest the profits they've taken into BTC at lower prices but others want the run to carry on. I think longing into 38K resistance would be difficult, and the market looks to punish late longs generally. Weekly RSI is 74, daily RSI has just dropped below the overbought area after multiple bearish deviations.
All TA leads to a retracement and a local high is already in, However, this is sometimes a Fundamental analysis vs Technical analysis battle where the logical answer doesn't always play out and emotions ride high.
I'm looking for diagonal support to be held as well as the midpoint from last weeks range to reassure BTC's strength, consolidation under the 38k resistance would be primed to break above and target the 40k big even level.